OTTAWA — The health of Canada’s factories and consumer-goods outlets will top economists’ concerns this week, setting the stage for overall economic growth and employment data further down the road.

The latest manufacturing report from Statistics Canada, coming early Tuesday, could provide some temporary relief from a recent spate of monthly declines.

Most analysts predict factory sales rose by about one per cent in June after a drop of an equal size in May — which marked the third loss in five months.

“May’s result was negatively impacted by the Alberta wildfires and supply chain disruptions in the auto sector and we expect some reversal of these in June,” RBC economists said in their forecast.

Some other analysts, however, suspect June could deliver another poor reading on manufacturing activity, even as exports — representing roughly 30 per cent of GDP — bounced back during the month, following five straight declines.

Canadian factories have struggled since the 2008-09 recession, and firms have been criticized for not investing enough to expand their export markets. Manufacturers have also been hurt by the oil-price collapse that hampered activity in Alberta, which has also been sidelined by recent wildfires in that province.

Meanwhile, Friday’s retail sales report for June should show an increase of between 0.4 and 0.9 per cent, thanks in large measure to a rebound in auto sales. Recent data from DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. showed dealers sold 191,088 units in June, up 7.4 per cent from a year earlier.

“Underlying (retail) sales are expected to be softer after core sales climbed nearly 11 per cent annualized in the first five months of the year, far firmer than job growth and the broader economy would suggest is sustainable,” said economist Benjamin Reitzes at BMO Capital Markets.

Perhaps lost in this week’s numbers is how much shoppers will be paying for these items.

Statistics Canada’s consumer prices index for July will also be released this week. But Friday’s inflation report is not anticipated to move the meter on monetary policy, given the rate of price movements — the main indicator used by the Bank of Canada to determine where to set its key interest rate — have not been dramatic recently.

“Below-seasonal increases in gasoline prices likely pulled the headline CPI down in the month,” said National Bank economists in a note to investors.

The pace of year-over-year price increases likely eased to 1.2 per cent in July from 1.5 per cent a month earlier. Core inflation — stripping out the most volatile monthly items — probably remained at 2.1 per cent.

All tolled, many forecasters are anticipating GDP contracted by about two per cent in the second quarter of 2016 after growing 2.4 per cent between January and March.

Still, that weakness should be temporary as growth should resume at a strong pace of three to four per cent as oil production gets back on track and rebuilding efforts begin in the Fort McMurray area of Alberta that was hardest hit by the wildfires.

GDP numbers for June and the second quarter will be released Aug. 31.

The other major upcoming economic report — Canada’s labour force survey for August — will be published Sept. 9 by Statistics Canada.

The July jobs data showed a net loss of 31,200 workers, which lifted the unemployment rate to 6.9 per cent from 6.8 per cent the previous month.

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